The Pendulum and The Pit

By Eli Amdur

To witness history – and to recognize it as such while it’s happening – is rare. To do that twice is mind boggling. Yet that’s what we’ve done since 2008. That year, we witnessed the onset of – and began enduring the prolonged, painful progression of – “The Great Recession,” when the job market fell into critical condition, in medical terms.

The pendulum had swung as far as possible, heavily favoring employers, stacked against job seekers. Unemployment was 10 percent. Employers were having their way: lowering salaries, increasing workloads, asking unfair salary questions, executing mass layoffs, being totally nontransparent, and … well … you know the story. And, long as that recession lasted, climbing out of it took longer. For sure, it took the steady hand of thoughtful leadership, but in retrospect, we all considered it a once-in-a-lifetime event.

Until it wasn’t.

Hardly a decade later – 2020 – multiple crises hit, resulting in (among other disasters) losing 22 million jobs in just two months, roughly 15 percent of our total civilian labor force. That was equal to the size of the entire labor force when the Great Depression hit. (Think about that perspective for a minute.) But then, an equally powerful force moved us up faster and further than ever before. The American Rescue program outperformed everyone’s expectations, firing up the largest, fastest job creation engine in history. By a long shot.

In short, we’ve been in the greatest job market in American history for 16 months now. By a long shot. The pendulum has swung all the way in the opposite direction. Unemployment is 3.6 percent. The labor shortage has led to 11.5 million open jobs which, in turn, has launched salaries and sign-on bonuses into orbit, prompted raises and promotions, yielded to demands for flexible work hours and conditions, replaced exit interviews with stay interviews, and, well … you know the story.

Now what’s the purpose of this reflection? Certainly not to mash numbers. We know them all too well. There’s a hidden truth here– and a powerful lesson to be learned if we’re willing to learn it.

Neither extreme is good in the long run. Each is good for one party or another, temporarily, but always at the others’ expense. Unless understandings are reached and measures taken, this oscillation will perpetuate, but if employers will examine their hiring practices and job seekers will bolster their confidence, here’s what a copacetic job market might look like – long term.  

• Equal status. If employers talk to candidates like the peers they’re trying to prove they can be, and not interrogate them like just another inconvenience, they’re liable to see interesting possibilities.
• Transparency. There’s a sweeping nationwide movement of laws requiring employers to post salary ranges and prohibiting them from asking salary questions. Doesn’t that ever change things!
• Timeliness. All well-run processes have defined timelines, and all good decisions have “by” dates. Employers have been notoriously delinquent in this regard. That’ll cost them in a market like this,
• Closure. If you’ve made your hiring decision, dear employer, and it’s not me, just let me know. I can handle it, but your delinquency suggests that you can’t. Just tell me and let’s move on.
• Judge candidates by what they’re capable of doing, not just by what they’ve done. This isn’t easy but the payoff will be huge.At the same time, tell candidates what their possible future is.
• Listen to new voices. With unprecedented movement in the workplace (the great resignation, as it were), millions of new people with new ideas are showing up everywhere. Listen to them.
• Stop worshipping the ATS. It’s called an applicant tracking system for a reason: to track all those candidates that flood employers’ inboxes. But employers use it as an applicant screening system, and it’s pathetically poor at that. There’s no telling how many great hires weren’t made as a result.
• Don’t ask stupid questions. “What are your weaknesses?” and “Where do you see yourself in five years?” are – yup – stupid questions. If the candidate is well coached, you get slick answers; if not, you get stupid answers. Where’s that gotten us?
• Ditch the ageism. Older candidates are usually wiser and more experienced; younger ones likely have more potential and boundless energy. In either case, forget age. That’s useless. And wrong.

So, if we will moderate the swings of the pendulum, we shall avoid the depths of the pit.

Apologies, Mr. Poe.

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Career Coach Eli Amdur provides one-on-one coaching in job search, résumés, and interviewing.

Reach him at [email protected] or 201-357-5844.