Are we at a turning point? Handling the coming downturn.
By Eli Amdur
Embarking upon the second half of this incredibly momentous year, one that follows an even more momentous one – in fact, the greatest our job market has ever seen – I’m going out on a limb to predict that we’re approaching a distinctly critical juncture.
As incredibly powerful as the market has been for the last 18 months, and with as many crises as it’s weathered (concurrently, no less), we’ve got to have a downturn at one point or another.
I think we’re headed to that point, and I say that more from the gut – or perhaps a sixth sense – than from an analysis of a data set that has mystical patterns that only the enlightened can see. Maybe it’s like some animals that sense earthquakes before we do – and head to higher ground. Whatever: Something’s about to happen. Covid, climate disasters, supply chain mess, and other usually fatal calamities all rolled of the job market’s back like water off a … yeah. But now, the inevitable is here.
Optimism and Reality – good partners
Now, lest you think this is a message of doom, it is not. Our job market has been so strong, so resilient, and so relentless, that it’s certainly better poised to absorb shocks than our stock market has been. Keep that in mind. And let me remind you, as your long-time optimist-in-chief, that realism has always been front and center for me. Like right now.
That said, while our job market will have created – as of this month’s jobs report (release date: July 8) – somewhere between 2.7 million and 2.9 million jobs in just half a year (that’s a good guess, nothing more), that’s still a downturn. Of course, it is. We’ll take many laps around the sun before we see another year like 2021.
Which brings to mind: In 1928, many baseball fans were disappointed by George Herman Ruth’s 54 home runs, a 10 percent drop from his record-setting 60 in 1927. But he still hit 54 dingers. And the 50+ plateau had previously been reached by exactly one person: the Babe. Since then, that feat was accomplished only 43 times by only 27 players in MLB history since (fewer, if you toss the steroid era). So, 2022 (at least the rest of it) will probably be the kind of year for the job market that 1928 was for the Babe.
So, what do we make of it? A wise man I knew many years ago used to say of the stock market: “Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs don’t.” I think we can adopt the same wisdom. Most of us did very well in this job market and some of will as the market levels off, no matter what, and that depends solely on how you perceive and deal with the prevailing conditions.
Lessons learned – and applied
Since it’s not been long since our most recent job market debacle (2022), and not long since the one before (2008-09), the lessons we learned should still be fresh.
- The American job market will never again accommodate the passive job seeker. Whatever you want to happen depends on you making it happen.
- Attitude drives everything. A bad attitude is like a flat tire. You go nowhere until you change it.
- Jobs of the future are everywhere – the present, too – by the boatload. Think wind, climate, infrastructure, urban planning, and vertical farming, to name five big ones.
- Expand your sphere of awareness. You’ll no longer succeed in a cocoon. Be acutely aware of your job, business, industry, and global influences.
“Eye on Jobs”
To that end, I strongly suggest you register for “Eye on Jobs” – a new career tool that will arm you with usable data, provide analysis and commentary, focus on future jobs (they’re here now), and foster the positive attitude and proactive data stance you need for this market.
“Eye on Jobs” is a monthly subscription-based webinar, but the first one – July 21 at 7:00 PM – is absolutely free, with no obligation to subscribe. Once you attend the first one, I think you’ll see two things: (1) its value, and (2) its almost impossibly low fee. Not convinced? Sign up for July 21. Judge for yourself.
To register, simply go to this link: https://bit.ly/eyes-on-jobs
My team will take it from there.
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Career Coach Eli Amdur provides one-on-one coaching in job search, résumés, and interviewing.
Reach him at [email protected] or 201-357-5844.
